Yield curve explained

A Treasury yield curve plots yields across maturities, such as 3-month, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury rates. The shape changes as market expectations, inflation, policy rates, and risk preferences change.

A normal upward-sloping curve means longer maturities yield more than shorter maturities. A flat or inverted curve means the difference between short and long rates has compressed or reversed.

Common curve spreads include 2s10s, the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, and 3M10Y, the 10-year yield minus the 3-month Treasury yield. These spreads are often tracked because they summarize curve shape in one number.

A spread is not a complete macro model. It is one indicator among inflation data, labor data, credit spreads, central-bank policy expectations, commodities, and company-specific fundamentals.

Aerarium Research presents macro series as context: current level, change, range, and history. The product avoids converting macro charts into personalized investment instructions.

Read macro data alongside company filings and ownership context. Macro can help explain the environment around a company, but it does not replace company-level evidence.