A. O. Smith (AOS) Research | Aerarium Research

Forward Estimates

EPS Estimates

Current Qtr

$0.94

$0.54$1.10

vs $1.07-11.8%

12 analysts

Next Qtr

$1.00

$0.95$1.09

vs $0.94+6.0%

12 analysts

Current Yr

$3.77

$3.55$3.85

vs $3.85-2.0%

13 analysts

Next Yr

$4.18

$4.08$4.42

vs $3.77+10.8%

13 analysts

Revenue Estimates

Current Qtr

$997.57M

$969.00M$1.02B

vs $1.01B-1.4%

12 analysts

Next Qtr

$989.53M

$982.42M$999.58M

vs $942.50M+5.0%

12 analysts

Current Yr

$3.92B

$3.88B$3.96B

vs $3.83B+2.3%

13 analysts

Next Yr

$4.08B

$4.03B$4.13B

vs $3.92B+4.3%

13 analysts

SEC filings →

View all 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for AOS on EDGAR.

AOS filing events and research context
Filed	Item	Context
Feb 10, 2026	business	A. O. Smith (AOS) operates through two reporting segments: North America, accounting for 78% of 2025 sales, and Rest of World (22%), primarily China and India. The company manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, and water treatment products. In North America, AOS maintains a leading market share through brands such as A. O. Smith, State, and Lochinvar, distributing via wholesale plumbing channels, retail partners like Lowe’s, and e-commerce. Growth is driven by energy-efficiency trends and regulatory mandates, including an October 2026 DOE rule requiring commercial water heaters to be condensing, prompting the launch of the Cyclone Flex, ADAPT, and VERITUS product lines. In the Rest of World segment, AOS is a leader in China’s residential water heater and reverse osmosis markets, though it is currently evaluating strategic opportunities for its China operations. In India, the company expanded its water purification presence through the 2024 acquisition of Pureit. Key financial risks include steel price volatility and tariffs. While some jurisdictions are banning gas-fired products in new construction, AOS mitigates this risk with a diversified portfolio of electric and heat pump solutions. Principal competitors include Rheem and Bradford White in North America, and Haier and Midea in China.
Feb 10, 2026	mda	AOS operates two reporting segments, North America and Rest of World, focusing on residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, and water treatment products. The company is expanding through strategic acquisitions, including Pureit in South Asia and the $470 million acquisition of Leonard Valve, which is expected to contribute $70 million in 2026 sales. In North America, commercial water heater volumes are projected to grow mid-single digits in 2026, driven by "buy-ahead" demand preceding a Department of Energy efficiency rule effective October 2026. Conversely, residential volumes remain soft due to weak new construction. High-efficiency condensing gas boilers are expected to grow 6-8% in 2026. The Rest of World segment faces headwinds in China, where third-party sales fell 12% in 2025 due to weak consumer demand and the cessation of government subsidies; a mid-single digit decline is projected for 2026, prompting an ongoing strategic assessment of the China business. To offset rising steel costs and tariffs, AOS implemented price increases in early 2025. Consolidated sales are projected to grow 2-5% in 2026, with estimated earnings per share between $3.85 and $4.15. Capital allocation remains focused on shareholder returns, with $400.8 million repurchased in 2025 and an additional $200 million planned for 2026.
Feb 10, 2026	risk_factors	A. O. Smith is exposed to significant volatility in North American residential and commercial construction, particularly through softening demand for water heaters and the high-efficiency gas boiler segment. In China, the company faces risks from inconsistent economic recovery, declining housing sales, and uncertainty surrounding government stimulus programs. Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside international tariffs and trade disputes, threaten operational stability. The company must navigate secular trends toward decarbonization and energy efficiency while managing competitive pressures from new technologies. Operational risks include supply chain disruptions affecting the timely procurement of commodities and components, as well as potential IT or data security breaches. Financially, AOS is susceptible to foreign currency fluctuations—managed through forward contracts—and the potential for material customer defaults or bankruptcies. Additionally, the company faces the risk of failing to realize expected synergies from its acquisitions. These factors, combined with global inflationary pressures and the potential for a recession in key markets, could materially impact future results.

Filed

Item

Context

Feb 10, 2026

business

A. O. Smith (AOS) operates through two reporting segments: North America, accounting for 78% of 2025 sales, and Rest of World (22%), primarily China and India. The company manufactures residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, and water treatment products. In North America, AOS maintains a leading market share through brands such as A. O. Smith, State, and Lochinvar, distributing via wholesale plumbing channels, retail partners like Lowe’s, and e-commerce. Growth is driven by energy-efficiency trends and regulatory mandates, including an October 2026 DOE rule requiring commercial water heaters to be condensing, prompting the launch of the Cyclone Flex, ADAPT, and VERITUS product lines. In the Rest of World segment, AOS is a leader in China’s residential water heater and reverse osmosis markets, though it is currently evaluating strategic opportunities for its China operations. In India, the company expanded its water purification presence through the 2024 acquisition of Pureit. Key financial risks include steel price volatility and tariffs. While some jurisdictions are banning gas-fired products in new construction, AOS mitigates this risk with a diversified portfolio of electric and heat pump solutions. Principal competitors include Rheem and Bradford White in North America, and Haier and Midea in China.

Feb 10, 2026

mda

AOS operates two reporting segments, North America and Rest of World, focusing on residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, and water treatment products. The company is expanding through strategic acquisitions, including Pureit in South Asia and the $470 million acquisition of Leonard Valve, which is expected to contribute $70 million in 2026 sales. In North America, commercial water heater volumes are projected to grow mid-single digits in 2026, driven by "buy-ahead" demand preceding a Department of Energy efficiency rule effective October 2026. Conversely, residential volumes remain soft due to weak new construction. High-efficiency condensing gas boilers are expected to grow 6-8% in 2026. The Rest of World segment faces headwinds in China, where third-party sales fell 12% in 2025 due to weak consumer demand and the cessation of government subsidies; a mid-single digit decline is projected for 2026, prompting an ongoing strategic assessment of the China business. To offset rising steel costs and tariffs, AOS implemented price increases in early 2025. Consolidated sales are projected to grow 2-5% in 2026, with estimated earnings per share between $3.85 and $4.15. Capital allocation remains focused on shareholder returns, with $400.8 million repurchased in 2025 and an additional $200 million planned for 2026.

Feb 10, 2026

risk_factors

A. O. Smith is exposed to significant volatility in North American residential and commercial construction, particularly through softening demand for water heaters and the high-efficiency gas boiler segment. In China, the company faces risks from inconsistent economic recovery, declining housing sales, and uncertainty surrounding government stimulus programs. Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside international tariffs and trade disputes, threaten operational stability. The company must navigate secular trends toward decarbonization and energy efficiency while managing competitive pressures from new technologies. Operational risks include supply chain disruptions affecting the timely procurement of commodities and components, as well as potential IT or data security breaches. Financially, AOS is susceptible to foreign currency fluctuations—managed through forward contracts—and the potential for material customer defaults or bankruptcies. Additionally, the company faces the risk of failing to realize expected synergies from its acquisitions. These factors, combined with global inflationary pressures and the potential for a recession in key markets, could materially impact future results.

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AOS filing events and research context

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