CF Industries (CF) Research | Aerarium Research

Forward Estimates

EPS Estimates

Current Qtr

$5.91

$5.49$6.16

vs $2.37+149.3%

5 analysts

Next Qtr

$4.75

$3.78$5.30

vs $2.19+116.8%

5 analysts

Current Yr

$18.23

$15.95$21.19

vs $8.97+103.2%

7 analysts

Next Yr

$11.16

$8.26$14.19

vs $18.23-38.8%

8 analysts

Revenue Estimates

Current Qtr

$2.44B

$2.16B$2.62B

vs $1.89B+28.9%

10 analysts

Next Qtr

$2.02B

$1.75B$2.33B

vs $1.66B+21.8%

9 analysts

Current Yr

$8.58B

$7.60B$10.65B

vs $7.08B+21.1%

19 analysts

Next Yr

$7.34B

$6.65B$8.26B

vs $8.58B-14.4%

19 analysts

SEC filings →

View all 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for CF on EDGAR.

CF filing events and research context
Filed	Item	Context
Feb 25, 2026	business	CF Industries is a global leader in ammonia production, operating a value chain that includes manufacturing complexes in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K., supported by an extensive North American distribution network. The company’s core product is anhydrous ammonia, which is either sold directly or upgraded into nitrogen fertilizers (granular urea, UAN, AN) and industrial products like diesel exhaust fluid (DEF). A primary strategic focus is the transition to "low-carbon ammonia" to serve both traditional agriculture and emerging industrial applications, such as power generation and steel production. The company is actively decarbonizing its existing network through carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects, notably at its Donaldsonville and Yazoo City complexes. Additionally, CF is constructing a greenfield low-carbon ammonia plant via the Blue Point joint venture in Louisiana, with production expected by 2029. Financial performance is heavily influenced by global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics and the cost of natural gas, the primary feedstock. Key risks include geopolitical trade disruptions, volatile natural gas prices, and regulatory uncertainty regarding carbon policies and tariffs. The company maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy, evidenced by significant share repurchases and ongoing investments in decarbonization infrastructure, while managing operational risks such as the recent production outage at the Yazoo City facility.
Feb 25, 2026	mda	CF Industries (CF) reported 2025 net earnings of $1.46 billion, a 19% increase over 2024, driven by a 19% rise in average selling prices to $372 per ton. This performance reflects strong global demand in North America, India, and Brazil, alongside supply disruptions in Egypt, Iran, and Russia. Gross margin expanded 32% to $2.72 billion, though this was partially offset by a 38% increase in natural gas costs, which averaged $3.31 per MMBtu. The company’s core strategy centers on decarbonizing its ammonia network to capture premiums for low-carbon products. Key developments include the completion of a $200 million carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project at the Donaldsonville complex, enabling 1.9 million tons of annual low-carbon ammonia capacity. Additionally, CF formed the Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui to construct a $3.7 billion low-carbon ammonia plant in Louisiana, expected to begin production in 2029. Operational risks include the November 2025 incident at the Yazoo City ammonium nitrate (AN) facility, which idled production until at least late 2026 and resulted in a $25 million asset impairment. Furthermore, the company abandoned a 20-megawatt electrolyzer project at Donaldsonville, taking a $51 million impairment charge in favor of prioritizing CCS-based production.
Feb 25, 2026	risk_factors	CF Industries operates in a highly cyclical, commodity-driven nitrogen fertilizer market where profitability is dictated by global supply-demand balances and volatile natural gas costs. As a North American producer, the company benefits from favorable regional energy pricing but faces intense competition from state-owned and subsidized global entities. Financial performance is sensitive to agricultural cycles, weather-related application delays, and the seasonality of demand, which necessitates significant working capital for inventory management. Strategic growth is currently centered on low-carbon ammonia, a capital-intensive transition that introduces significant execution and operational risks. These projects rely on unproven large-scale technologies, such as autothermal reforming (ATR) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), as well as the development of third-party infrastructure. The company’s ability to realize anticipated tax credits and market demand for low-carbon products remains uncertain and subject to evolving regulatory frameworks, including carbon border adjustment mechanisms and GHG emissions standards. Furthermore, the company faces operational concentration risk, with the Donaldsonville complex representing a substantial portion of its ammonia capacity. Any disruption—whether from extreme weather, cybersecurity threats, or logistical failures—could materially impair production, while the company’s reliance on third-party transportation and sequestration providers adds layers of regulatory and liability exposure.

Filed

Item

Context

Feb 25, 2026

business

CF Industries is a global leader in ammonia production, operating a value chain that includes manufacturing complexes in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K., supported by an extensive North American distribution network. The company’s core product is anhydrous ammonia, which is either sold directly or upgraded into nitrogen fertilizers (granular urea, UAN, AN) and industrial products like diesel exhaust fluid (DEF). A primary strategic focus is the transition to "low-carbon ammonia" to serve both traditional agriculture and emerging industrial applications, such as power generation and steel production. The company is actively decarbonizing its existing network through carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects, notably at its Donaldsonville and Yazoo City complexes. Additionally, CF is constructing a greenfield low-carbon ammonia plant via the Blue Point joint venture in Louisiana, with production expected by 2029. Financial performance is heavily influenced by global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics and the cost of natural gas, the primary feedstock. Key risks include geopolitical trade disruptions, volatile natural gas prices, and regulatory uncertainty regarding carbon policies and tariffs. The company maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy, evidenced by significant share repurchases and ongoing investments in decarbonization infrastructure, while managing operational risks such as the recent production outage at the Yazoo City facility.

Feb 25, 2026

mda

CF Industries (CF) reported 2025 net earnings of $1.46 billion, a 19% increase over 2024, driven by a 19% rise in average selling prices to $372 per ton. This performance reflects strong global demand in North America, India, and Brazil, alongside supply disruptions in Egypt, Iran, and Russia. Gross margin expanded 32% to $2.72 billion, though this was partially offset by a 38% increase in natural gas costs, which averaged $3.31 per MMBtu. The company’s core strategy centers on decarbonizing its ammonia network to capture premiums for low-carbon products. Key developments include the completion of a $200 million carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project at the Donaldsonville complex, enabling 1.9 million tons of annual low-carbon ammonia capacity. Additionally, CF formed the Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui to construct a $3.7 billion low-carbon ammonia plant in Louisiana, expected to begin production in 2029. Operational risks include the November 2025 incident at the Yazoo City ammonium nitrate (AN) facility, which idled production until at least late 2026 and resulted in a $25 million asset impairment. Furthermore, the company abandoned a 20-megawatt electrolyzer project at Donaldsonville, taking a $51 million impairment charge in favor of prioritizing CCS-based production.

Feb 25, 2026

risk_factors

CF Industries operates in a highly cyclical, commodity-driven nitrogen fertilizer market where profitability is dictated by global supply-demand balances and volatile natural gas costs. As a North American producer, the company benefits from favorable regional energy pricing but faces intense competition from state-owned and subsidized global entities. Financial performance is sensitive to agricultural cycles, weather-related application delays, and the seasonality of demand, which necessitates significant working capital for inventory management. Strategic growth is currently centered on low-carbon ammonia, a capital-intensive transition that introduces significant execution and operational risks. These projects rely on unproven large-scale technologies, such as autothermal reforming (ATR) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), as well as the development of third-party infrastructure. The company’s ability to realize anticipated tax credits and market demand for low-carbon products remains uncertain and subject to evolving regulatory frameworks, including carbon border adjustment mechanisms and GHG emissions standards. Furthermore, the company faces operational concentration risk, with the Donaldsonville complex representing a substantial portion of its ammonia capacity. Any disruption—whether from extreme weather, cybersecurity threats, or logistical failures—could materially impair production, while the company’s reliance on third-party transportation and sequestration providers adds layers of regulatory and liability exposure.

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CF filing events and research context

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