Carvana (CVNA) Research | Aerarium Research

Forward Estimates

EPS Estimates

Current Qtr

$0.43

$0.34$0.73

vs $0.26+66.2%

12 analysts

Next Qtr

$0.46

$0.37$0.78

vs $0.21+121.2%

12 analysts

Current Yr

$1.57

$1.40$1.86

vs $1.69-7.2%

13 analysts

Next Yr

$2.09

$1.50$2.72

vs $1.57+33.3%

14 analysts

Revenue Estimates

Current Qtr

$6.85B

$6.59B$7.23B

vs $4.84B+41.6%

19 analysts

Next Qtr

$7.28B

$6.77B$7.92B

vs $5.65B+29.0%

19 analysts

Current Yr

$27.79B

$26.56B$29.31B

vs $20.32B+36.7%

21 analysts

Next Yr

$34.66B

$29.19B$38.08B

vs $27.79B+24.7%

22 analysts

SEC filings →

View all 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for CVNA on EDGAR.

CVNA filing events and research context
Filed	Item	Context
Apr 29, 2026	mda_quarterly	Carvana reported significant year-over-year growth for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, driven by a 40% increase in retail units sold to 187,393. Total net sales and operating revenues rose 52% to $6.43 billion, led by a 62% surge in retail vehicle sales to $4.83 billion. Wholesale sales and revenues increased 24.9% to $1.08 billion, while other revenue streams—comprising gains on loan sales and complementary products including vehicle service contracts (VSC), GAP waivers, and Root-partnered auto insurance—grew 35.2% to $526 million. Total gross profit increased 36.8% to $1.27 billion, though total gross profit per unit saw a slight contraction to $6,783 from $6,938 in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $672 million. The company maintains a strong liquidity position with $6.91 billion in total resources, including $2.41 billion in cash and cash equivalents, against $5.0 billion in outstanding debt. Key risks include macroeconomic volatility regarding benchmark interest rates and inflationary pressures, alongside geopolitical instability, such as the conflict in Iran, which could escalate gasoline prices and increase logistics costs. Management also noted seasonal trends, with retail sales typically peaking in the first calendar quarter.
Feb 18, 2026	business	Carvana operates an integrated e-commerce platform for used vehicle transactions, generating revenue through retail sales, wholesale marketplace activity, and high-margin complementary products including vehicle service contracts (VSCs), GAP waiver coverage, and auto insurance. In 2025, retail units sold grew 43.3% to 596,641, driving total net sales and operating revenues to $20.3 billion. A critical driver of profitability is the monetization of originated finance receivables through securitization and forward-flow agreements. The company leverages a centralized infrastructure of inspection and reconditioning centers (IRCs) with a total capacity of 1.5 million vehicles annually to achieve economies of scale in acquisition and logistics. Key financial risks include exposure to macroeconomic volatility, specifically benchmark interest rates and inflationary pressures affecting vehicle affordability. Operations are subject to significant seasonality, with sales typically peaking in the first quarter. The balance sheet is characterized by substantial debt, including Senior Secured and Unsecured Notes, and a $2.3 billion Tax Receivable Agreement (TRA) liability. Recent strategic expansions include the acquisition of five franchise dealerships to diversify inventory procurement and enhance the vehicle acquisition network.
Feb 18, 2026	mda	Carvana’s financial stability is heavily contingent on credit market liquidity and the management of substantial indebtedness, including $3.9 billion in Senior Secured Notes. A primary driver of gross profit is the origination and sale of automotive finance receivables, a process exposed to widening credit spreads, investor demand, and federal Risk Retention Rules. The business remains highly sensitive to used vehicle price volatility, markdown risks, and industry seasonality, with sales typically peaking in the first quarter. Competitive pressures persist from traditional dealers like CarMax, online marketplaces, and OEMs such as Tesla and Ford. Operationally, the company is integrating generative AI to enhance efficiency but faces associated risks regarding data integrity and regulatory compliance. Structurally, Carvana operates as a controlled company under the Garcia Parties, who hold approximately 83% of the voting power, and is subject to significant cash outflows via a Tax Receivable Agreement. Recent regulatory scrutiny includes a June 2025 SEC subpoena stemming from a short-seller report. Additionally, the company maintains a complex related-party relationship with DriveTime for services including the administration of vehicle service contracts and the servicing of finance receivables.

Filed

Item

Context

Apr 29, 2026

mda_quarterly

Carvana reported significant year-over-year growth for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, driven by a 40% increase in retail units sold to 187,393. Total net sales and operating revenues rose 52% to $6.43 billion, led by a 62% surge in retail vehicle sales to $4.83 billion. Wholesale sales and revenues increased 24.9% to $1.08 billion, while other revenue streams—comprising gains on loan sales and complementary products including vehicle service contracts (VSC), GAP waivers, and Root-partnered auto insurance—grew 35.2% to $526 million. Total gross profit increased 36.8% to $1.27 billion, though total gross profit per unit saw a slight contraction to $6,783 from $6,938 in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $672 million. The company maintains a strong liquidity position with $6.91 billion in total resources, including $2.41 billion in cash and cash equivalents, against $5.0 billion in outstanding debt. Key risks include macroeconomic volatility regarding benchmark interest rates and inflationary pressures, alongside geopolitical instability, such as the conflict in Iran, which could escalate gasoline prices and increase logistics costs. Management also noted seasonal trends, with retail sales typically peaking in the first calendar quarter.

Feb 18, 2026

business

Carvana operates an integrated e-commerce platform for used vehicle transactions, generating revenue through retail sales, wholesale marketplace activity, and high-margin complementary products including vehicle service contracts (VSCs), GAP waiver coverage, and auto insurance. In 2025, retail units sold grew 43.3% to 596,641, driving total net sales and operating revenues to $20.3 billion. A critical driver of profitability is the monetization of originated finance receivables through securitization and forward-flow agreements. The company leverages a centralized infrastructure of inspection and reconditioning centers (IRCs) with a total capacity of 1.5 million vehicles annually to achieve economies of scale in acquisition and logistics. Key financial risks include exposure to macroeconomic volatility, specifically benchmark interest rates and inflationary pressures affecting vehicle affordability. Operations are subject to significant seasonality, with sales typically peaking in the first quarter. The balance sheet is characterized by substantial debt, including Senior Secured and Unsecured Notes, and a $2.3 billion Tax Receivable Agreement (TRA) liability. Recent strategic expansions include the acquisition of five franchise dealerships to diversify inventory procurement and enhance the vehicle acquisition network.

Feb 18, 2026

mda

Carvana’s financial stability is heavily contingent on credit market liquidity and the management of substantial indebtedness, including $3.9 billion in Senior Secured Notes. A primary driver of gross profit is the origination and sale of automotive finance receivables, a process exposed to widening credit spreads, investor demand, and federal Risk Retention Rules. The business remains highly sensitive to used vehicle price volatility, markdown risks, and industry seasonality, with sales typically peaking in the first quarter. Competitive pressures persist from traditional dealers like CarMax, online marketplaces, and OEMs such as Tesla and Ford. Operationally, the company is integrating generative AI to enhance efficiency but faces associated risks regarding data integrity and regulatory compliance. Structurally, Carvana operates as a controlled company under the Garcia Parties, who hold approximately 83% of the voting power, and is subject to significant cash outflows via a Tax Receivable Agreement. Recent regulatory scrutiny includes a June 2025 SEC subpoena stemming from a short-seller report. Additionally, the company maintains a complex related-party relationship with DriveTime for services including the administration of vehicle service contracts and the servicing of finance receivables.

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CVNA filing events and research context

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