DaVita (DVA) Research | Aerarium Research

Forward Estimates

EPS Estimates

Current Qtr

$3.84

$3.62$4.22

vs $2.95+30.3%

6 analysts

Next Qtr

$3.93

$3.84$4.33

vs $2.51+56.7%

6 analysts

Current Yr

$14.80

$14.51$16.03

vs $10.78+37.3%

7 analysts

Next Yr

$17.18

$15.37$19.59

vs $14.80+16.1%

8 analysts

Revenue Estimates

Current Qtr

$3.49B

$3.44B$3.54B

vs $3.38B+3.4%

6 analysts

Next Qtr

$3.54B

$3.48B$3.58B

vs $3.42B+3.4%

6 analysts

Current Yr

$14.15B

$13.95B$14.50B

vs $13.64B+3.7%

7 analysts

Next Yr

$14.63B

$14.27B$15.28B

vs $14.15B+3.4%

7 analysts

SEC filings →

View all 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for DVA on EDGAR.

DVA filing events and research context
Filed	Item	Context
Feb 11, 2026	business	DaVita operates in the highly regulated dialysis industry, where profitability is acutely sensitive to the payor mix. Commercial insurance patients generate nearly all of the company's nonacute dialysis profits, making revenue vulnerable to the expiration of ACA premium tax credits and restrictive state legislation, such as California’s AB 290, which impacts charitable premium assistance. The company faces downward pressure on private payor rates and uncertainty following the Marietta Supreme Court decision regarding ESRD benefit coverage. Government reimbursement relies heavily on the Medicare ESRD Prospective Payment System (PPS) bundled payments; recent shifts, such as the January 2025 incorporation of oral-only drugs into the bundle, create margin volatility. Operational risks include a labor-intensive model plagued by nationwide nursing shortages and increasing unionization efforts in California. Supply chain concentration also poses a threat, as evidenced by a September 2024 weather event that hindered home-based dialysis growth. Strategically, DaVita is expanding into Integrated Kidney Care (IKC) and home-based modalities while pursuing growth through acquisitions. However, this strategy depends on securing nephrologists as medical directors amidst an aging physician population and intense competition from both traditional and non-traditional kidney care providers.
Feb 11, 2026	mda	In 2025, DaVita generated $13.64 billion in consolidated revenues, with U.S. dialysis revenue growing 3.5% to $11.79 billion and ancillary services rising 27.3% to $1.92 billion. Operating income was $2.04 billion, and free cash flow reached $1.02 billion. The company reduced its outstanding share count by 14.9% through $1.79 billion in stock repurchases and restructured its debt, which included issuing $1.00 billion in senior notes. U.S. dialysis average revenue per treatment rose to $409.56, driven by Medicare rate increases and the inclusion of oral phosphate binders under the Transitional Drug Add-on Payment Adjustment (TDAPA). However, 2026 U.S. treatment volumes are projected to be flat due to elevated patient mortality and the lingering effects of an April 2025 cybersecurity incident, which cost $25.2 million in 2025 and disrupted billing cycles. Key risks include labor inflation, with clinical wage rates rising 3.8% amid nursing shortages, and supply chain disruptions, such as a September 2024 supplier plant shutdown that slowed home-based dialysis growth. Additionally, the expiration of enhanced ACA premium tax credits in late 2025 threatens to shift high-margin commercial payors—which represent 32% of U.S. dialysis revenue—to lower-paying government programs.
Feb 11, 2026	risk_factors	DaVita’s financial performance is heavily contingent on government reimbursement, with Medicare and Medicaid providing 68% of U.S. dialysis patient service revenues. Key regulatory risks include the 2026 ESRD Prospective Payment System (PPS) rate adjustments and the expiration of the Transitional Drug Add-on Payment Adjustment (TDAPA) for phosphate binders at the end of 2026, which may impact operating income based on future reimbursement rates and prescribing patterns. The company faces significant margin pressure from inflationary labor costs and a nationwide shortage of skilled clinical personnel. Treatment volumes remain vulnerable to elevated mortality levels and seasonal flu impacts. Operational risks are highlighted by a 2025 cybersecurity incident that caused significant disruption and approximately $25 million in charges. DaVita carries substantial indebtedness, utilizing forward interest rate caps to mitigate exposure to SOFR volatility. Legal and compliance risks are prominent, including ongoing False Claims Act litigation and Federal Trade Commission investigations into physician non-compete agreements. While international operations drive patient growth, they introduce foreign currency translation risks and local legal contingencies. Revenue recognition remains a critical accounting estimate due to the complexity of coordinating primary and secondary coverage for approximately 200,500 U.S. patients.

Filed

Item

Context

Feb 11, 2026

business

DaVita operates in the highly regulated dialysis industry, where profitability is acutely sensitive to the payor mix. Commercial insurance patients generate nearly all of the company's nonacute dialysis profits, making revenue vulnerable to the expiration of ACA premium tax credits and restrictive state legislation, such as California’s AB 290, which impacts charitable premium assistance. The company faces downward pressure on private payor rates and uncertainty following the *Marietta* Supreme Court decision regarding ESRD benefit coverage. Government reimbursement relies heavily on the Medicare ESRD Prospective Payment System (PPS) bundled payments; recent shifts, such as the January 2025 incorporation of oral-only drugs into the bundle, create margin volatility. Operational risks include a labor-intensive model plagued by nationwide nursing shortages and increasing unionization efforts in California. Supply chain concentration also poses a threat, as evidenced by a September 2024 weather event that hindered home-based dialysis growth. Strategically, DaVita is expanding into Integrated Kidney Care (IKC) and home-based modalities while pursuing growth through acquisitions. However, this strategy depends on securing nephrologists as medical directors amidst an aging physician population and intense competition from both traditional and non-traditional kidney care providers.

Feb 11, 2026

mda

In 2025, DaVita generated $13.64 billion in consolidated revenues, with U.S. dialysis revenue growing 3.5% to $11.79 billion and ancillary services rising 27.3% to $1.92 billion. Operating income was $2.04 billion, and free cash flow reached $1.02 billion. The company reduced its outstanding share count by 14.9% through $1.79 billion in stock repurchases and restructured its debt, which included issuing $1.00 billion in senior notes. U.S. dialysis average revenue per treatment rose to $409.56, driven by Medicare rate increases and the inclusion of oral phosphate binders under the Transitional Drug Add-on Payment Adjustment (TDAPA). However, 2026 U.S. treatment volumes are projected to be flat due to elevated patient mortality and the lingering effects of an April 2025 cybersecurity incident, which cost $25.2 million in 2025 and disrupted billing cycles. Key risks include labor inflation, with clinical wage rates rising 3.8% amid nursing shortages, and supply chain disruptions, such as a September 2024 supplier plant shutdown that slowed home-based dialysis growth. Additionally, the expiration of enhanced ACA premium tax credits in late 2025 threatens to shift high-margin commercial payors—which represent 32% of U.S. dialysis revenue—to lower-paying government programs.

Feb 11, 2026

risk_factors

DaVita’s financial performance is heavily contingent on government reimbursement, with Medicare and Medicaid providing 68% of U.S. dialysis patient service revenues. Key regulatory risks include the 2026 ESRD Prospective Payment System (PPS) rate adjustments and the expiration of the Transitional Drug Add-on Payment Adjustment (TDAPA) for phosphate binders at the end of 2026, which may impact operating income based on future reimbursement rates and prescribing patterns. The company faces significant margin pressure from inflationary labor costs and a nationwide shortage of skilled clinical personnel. Treatment volumes remain vulnerable to elevated mortality levels and seasonal flu impacts. Operational risks are highlighted by a 2025 cybersecurity incident that caused significant disruption and approximately $25 million in charges. DaVita carries substantial indebtedness, utilizing forward interest rate caps to mitigate exposure to SOFR volatility. Legal and compliance risks are prominent, including ongoing False Claims Act litigation and Federal Trade Commission investigations into physician non-compete agreements. While international operations drive patient growth, they introduce foreign currency translation risks and local legal contingencies. Revenue recognition remains a critical accounting estimate due to the complexity of coordinating primary and secondary coverage for approximately 200,500 U.S. patients.

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DVA filing events and research context

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