Molina Healthcare (MOH) Research

Forward Estimates

EPS Estimates

Current Qtr

$1.47

$0.98$2.28

vs $5.48-73.2%

17 analysts

Next Qtr

$1.07

$0.59$1.59

vs $1.51-29.2%

6 analysts

Current Yr

$5.21

$5.00$5.60

vs $11.03-52.8%

18 analysts

Next Yr

$7.85

$1.46$12.62

vs $3.47+126.5%

8 analysts

Revenue Estimates

Current Qtr

$10.85B

$10.59B$11.05B

vs $11.43B-5.1%

12 analysts

Next Qtr

$10.97B

$10.58B$11.23B

vs $11.48B-4.4%

12 analysts

Current Yr

$44.42B

$43.53B$45.65B

vs $45.43B-2.2%

15 analysts

Next Yr

$47.26B

$44.24B$51.06B

vs $44.42B+6.4%

14 analysts

SEC filings →

View all 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for MOH on EDGAR.

MOH filing events and research context
Filed	Item	Context
Feb 10, 2026	business	Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services through its Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace segments, serving approximately 5.5 million members across 21 states. The company derives revenue primarily from government premiums, utilizing the medical care ratio (MCR) as a key performance metric. In 2025, Molina experienced revenue growth but significant margin compression across all segments. The Medicaid MCR rose to 91.8% due to higher utilization in behavioral health, high-cost drugs, and long-term services and supports (LTSS), alongside market contraction from eligibility redeterminations. The Medicare MCR increased to 92.4%, driven by higher acuity among dual-eligible populations; as a result, the company is exiting the MAPD product in 13 states to focus exclusively on dual-eligibles. Marketplace MCR rose to 90.6% due to higher utilization and CMS program integrity initiatives. A primary financial risk is the temporal imbalance where medical cost trends outpace government rate updates. Additionally, the company faces strict regulatory capital requirements that limit the transfer of dividends from subsidiaries to the parent company. Recent strategic activity includes the $350 million acquisition of ConnectiCare to drive membership growth.
Feb 10, 2026	mda	Molina Healthcare reported 2025 total revenue of $45.4 billion, a 12% increase over 2024, though net income declined to $472 million. This profitability compression was primarily driven by a consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) of 91.7%, which exceeded long-term targets due to higher-than-expected utilization in behavioral health, high-cost pharmacy drugs, and long-term services and supports (LTSS). In the Medicaid segment, membership was pressured by eligibility redeterminations, yet the company secured significant contract wins in Georgia, Texas, and a sole-provider contract in Florida expected to generate $6 billion in annual premium revenue starting Q4 2026. The Medicare segment saw MCR rise to 92.4% following a strategic exit from MAPD in 13 states to focus on high-acuity dual-eligible populations. Marketplace membership grew to 655,000 members, though MCR increased to 90.6% due to CMS program integrity initiatives and utilization trends. Strategic growth included the acquisition of ConnectiCare. To manage capital, Molina issued $850 million in senior notes in November 2025 and authorized $1 billion in common stock repurchases. The company maintains sufficient liquidity with $5.1 billion in working capital and remains in compliance with all regulatory capital requirements.
Feb 10, 2026	risk_factors	Molina Healthcare’s financial performance is heavily dependent on Medicaid, which constituted 75% of 2025 premium revenues. The company faces significant risk if state-fixed premiums fail to keep pace with rising medical costs or utilization, as low single-digit profit margins make net income highly sensitive to the medical care ratio. Specifically, a one-percentage-point increase in this ratio can drastically reduce diluted earnings per share. The Marketplace segment is subject to high volatility and potential membership loss following the 2026 expiration of advanced premium tax credits. Furthermore, the OBBBA is projected to reduce Medicaid Expansion enrollment by 15% to 20% by 2029. Operational risks include the transition of MMP contracts to integrated D-SNP contracts and the impact of CMS Star Ratings on Medicare revenue. The company is also exposed to pharmaceutical cost spikes from specialty drugs, cybersecurity vulnerabilities in third-party vendor integrations, and potential goodwill impairment from acquisitions. Liquidity is constrained by state regulatory approval for subsidiary dividends and strict debt covenants, including a minimum Interest Coverage Ratio and maximum Consolidated Total Debt to Capital Ratio.

Filed

Item

Context

Feb 10, 2026

business

Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services through its Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace segments, serving approximately 5.5 million members across 21 states. The company derives revenue primarily from government premiums, utilizing the medical care ratio (MCR) as a key performance metric. In 2025, Molina experienced revenue growth but significant margin compression across all segments. The Medicaid MCR rose to 91.8% due to higher utilization in behavioral health, high-cost drugs, and long-term services and supports (LTSS), alongside market contraction from eligibility redeterminations. The Medicare MCR increased to 92.4%, driven by higher acuity among dual-eligible populations; as a result, the company is exiting the MAPD product in 13 states to focus exclusively on dual-eligibles. Marketplace MCR rose to 90.6% due to higher utilization and CMS program integrity initiatives. A primary financial risk is the temporal imbalance where medical cost trends outpace government rate updates. Additionally, the company faces strict regulatory capital requirements that limit the transfer of dividends from subsidiaries to the parent company. Recent strategic activity includes the $350 million acquisition of ConnectiCare to drive membership growth.

Feb 10, 2026

mda

Molina Healthcare reported 2025 total revenue of $45.4 billion, a 12% increase over 2024, though net income declined to $472 million. This profitability compression was primarily driven by a consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) of 91.7%, which exceeded long-term targets due to higher-than-expected utilization in behavioral health, high-cost pharmacy drugs, and long-term services and supports (LTSS). In the Medicaid segment, membership was pressured by eligibility redeterminations, yet the company secured significant contract wins in Georgia, Texas, and a sole-provider contract in Florida expected to generate $6 billion in annual premium revenue starting Q4 2026. The Medicare segment saw MCR rise to 92.4% following a strategic exit from MAPD in 13 states to focus on high-acuity dual-eligible populations. Marketplace membership grew to 655,000 members, though MCR increased to 90.6% due to CMS program integrity initiatives and utilization trends. Strategic growth included the acquisition of ConnectiCare. To manage capital, Molina issued $850 million in senior notes in November 2025 and authorized $1 billion in common stock repurchases. The company maintains sufficient liquidity with $5.1 billion in working capital and remains in compliance with all regulatory capital requirements.

Feb 10, 2026

risk_factors

Molina Healthcare’s financial performance is heavily dependent on Medicaid, which constituted 75% of 2025 premium revenues. The company faces significant risk if state-fixed premiums fail to keep pace with rising medical costs or utilization, as low single-digit profit margins make net income highly sensitive to the medical care ratio. Specifically, a one-percentage-point increase in this ratio can drastically reduce diluted earnings per share. The Marketplace segment is subject to high volatility and potential membership loss following the 2026 expiration of advanced premium tax credits. Furthermore, the OBBBA is projected to reduce Medicaid Expansion enrollment by 15% to 20% by 2029. Operational risks include the transition of MMP contracts to integrated D-SNP contracts and the impact of CMS Star Ratings on Medicare revenue. The company is also exposed to pharmaceutical cost spikes from specialty drugs, cybersecurity vulnerabilities in third-party vendor integrations, and potential goodwill impairment from acquisitions. Liquidity is constrained by state regulatory approval for subsidiary dividends and strict debt covenants, including a minimum Interest Coverage Ratio and maximum Consolidated Total Debt to Capital Ratio.

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MOH filing events and research context

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