Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Research | Aerarium Research

Forward Estimates

EPS Estimates

Current Qtr

$-2.09

$-2.52$-1.80

vs $-2.13+2.0%

15 analysts

Next Qtr

$-1.13

$-1.78$-0.33

vs $-0.51-121.4%

15 analysts

Current Yr

$-8.65

$-9.48$-7.52

vs $-7.26-19.1%

21 analysts

Next Yr

$-4.72

$-6.68$-0.08

vs $-8.65+45.3%

20 analysts

Revenue Estimates

Current Qtr

$101.77M

$71.10M$155.00M

vs $142.00M-28.3%

14 analysts

Next Qtr

$913.08M

$730.00M$1.10B

vs $1.02B-10.1%

14 analysts

Current Yr

$2.09B

$1.94B$2.21B

vs $1.94B+7.4%

22 analysts

Next Yr

$2.51B

$1.94B$4.84B

vs $2.09B+20.4%

21 analysts

SEC filings →

View all 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for MRNA on EDGAR.

MRNA filing events and research context
Filed	Item	Context
Feb 20, 2026	business	Moderna is a leader in mRNA medicine, leveraging its platform to develop vaccines and therapeutics across infectious disease, oncology, and rare disease. In 2025, the company generated $1.9 billion in revenue, primarily from its commercial COVID vaccines, Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, with mNEXSPIKE now leading in the U.S. retail channel. The RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, is also commercial, approved for adults 18 and older in various risk groups across multiple countries. The pipeline features several late-stage candidates. In oncology, intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157), an individualized neoantigen therapy developed with Merck, showed sustained recurrence-free survival in high-risk melanoma patients over five years, with eight Phase 2/3 trials ongoing across tumor types. Infectious disease efforts include seasonal flu+COVID combination vaccine (mRNA-1083) and seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010), both under regulatory review in key markets, and a Phase 3 norovirus vaccine (mRNA-1403). For rare diseases, mRNA-3927 for propionic acidemia is in a registrational study with Recordati, and mRNA-3705 for methylmalonic acidemia is expected to begin its registrational study in 2026. Moderna emphasizes a global manufacturing network, including new U.S. drug product capabilities and facilities in the UK, Canada, and Australia with multi-year government purchase commitments. The company integrates AI and digital tools across its value chain, from drug design to manufacturing, to enhance speed and efficiency. Competition is intense, particularly in seasonal vaccines where Moderna faces established players like Pfizer, BioNTech, and GSK, impacting market share for new launches like mRESVIA.
Feb 20, 2026	mda	Moderna’s financial performance in 2025 reflects a transition from pandemic-era revenue peaks to a commercial-stage biotechnology model. Total revenue declined to $1.9 billion, down from $3.2 billion in 2024, primarily due to lower COVID-19 vaccine volumes as the market shifts toward seasonal, competitive commercial demand. While net losses narrowed to $2.8 billion, the company continues to face significant operating expenses, though it achieved a 31% reduction in R&D spending by prioritizing its pipeline and winding down large Phase 3 respiratory programs. Key commercial assets include the COVID-19 vaccines Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, alongside the recently launched RSV vaccine, mRESVIA. The pipeline remains robust with 25 clinical candidates, notably the individualized neoantigen therapy intismeran (mRNA-4157) in collaboration with Merck, and a norovirus vaccine candidate. To bolster liquidity, Moderna secured a $1.5 billion five-year credit facility in late 2025 and is expanding U.S. manufacturing capabilities in Norwood, Massachusetts. Despite ongoing negative cash flows from operations, management maintains that current cash, equivalents, and investments of $8.1 billion are sufficient to fund operations for at least the next 12 months. Future financial health depends on successful commercial uptake of its respiratory portfolio and the advancement of its oncology and rare disease programs.
Feb 20, 2026	risk_factors	Moderna faces significant financial and operational risks as it transitions from a pandemic-driven enterprise to a commercial-stage biotechnology company. The primary risk is the volatility and decline in demand for its COVID-19 vaccine portfolio (Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE), which has led to substantial revenue contraction and inventory write-downs. The company’s financial performance is increasingly sensitive to seasonal market dynamics, making accurate demand forecasting difficult and increasing the risk of excess inventory and unutilized manufacturing capacity. Moderna is heavily reliant on the successful development and commercialization of its pipeline, which includes the RSV vaccine mRESVIA, seasonal flu candidates, and oncology therapies like intismeran autogene. Delays in clinical trials, regulatory setbacks, or failure to achieve anticipated milestones could materially impact future cash flows. Furthermore, the company is involved in extensive patent litigation with competitors, including Pfizer, BioNTech, and Arbutus, which creates legal uncertainty and potential financial exposure. While Moderna has secured a $1.5 billion credit facility to bolster liquidity, it continues to burn significant cash to fund its R&D and global infrastructure. The company’s reliance on government contracts and international manufacturing partnerships also introduces geopolitical and foreign currency exchange risks that could adversely affect its operating results.

Filed

Item

Context

Feb 20, 2026

business

Moderna is a leader in mRNA medicine, leveraging its platform to develop vaccines and therapeutics across infectious disease, oncology, and rare disease. In 2025, the company generated $1.9 billion in revenue, primarily from its commercial COVID vaccines, Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, with mNEXSPIKE now leading in the U.S. retail channel. The RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, is also commercial, approved for adults 18 and older in various risk groups across multiple countries. The pipeline features several late-stage candidates. In oncology, intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157), an individualized neoantigen therapy developed with Merck, showed sustained recurrence-free survival in high-risk melanoma patients over five years, with eight Phase 2/3 trials ongoing across tumor types. Infectious disease efforts include seasonal flu+COVID combination vaccine (mRNA-1083) and seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010), both under regulatory review in key markets, and a Phase 3 norovirus vaccine (mRNA-1403). For rare diseases, mRNA-3927 for propionic acidemia is in a registrational study with Recordati, and mRNA-3705 for methylmalonic acidemia is expected to begin its registrational study in 2026. Moderna emphasizes a global manufacturing network, including new U.S. drug product capabilities and facilities in the UK, Canada, and Australia with multi-year government purchase commitments. The company integrates AI and digital tools across its value chain, from drug design to manufacturing, to enhance speed and efficiency. Competition is intense, particularly in seasonal vaccines where Moderna faces established players like Pfizer, BioNTech, and GSK, impacting market share for new launches like mRESVIA.

Feb 20, 2026

mda

Moderna’s financial performance in 2025 reflects a transition from pandemic-era revenue peaks to a commercial-stage biotechnology model. Total revenue declined to $1.9 billion, down from $3.2 billion in 2024, primarily due to lower COVID-19 vaccine volumes as the market shifts toward seasonal, competitive commercial demand. While net losses narrowed to $2.8 billion, the company continues to face significant operating expenses, though it achieved a 31% reduction in R&D spending by prioritizing its pipeline and winding down large Phase 3 respiratory programs. Key commercial assets include the COVID-19 vaccines Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, alongside the recently launched RSV vaccine, mRESVIA. The pipeline remains robust with 25 clinical candidates, notably the individualized neoantigen therapy intismeran (mRNA-4157) in collaboration with Merck, and a norovirus vaccine candidate. To bolster liquidity, Moderna secured a $1.5 billion five-year credit facility in late 2025 and is expanding U.S. manufacturing capabilities in Norwood, Massachusetts. Despite ongoing negative cash flows from operations, management maintains that current cash, equivalents, and investments of $8.1 billion are sufficient to fund operations for at least the next 12 months. Future financial health depends on successful commercial uptake of its respiratory portfolio and the advancement of its oncology and rare disease programs.

Feb 20, 2026

risk_factors

Moderna faces significant financial and operational risks as it transitions from a pandemic-driven enterprise to a commercial-stage biotechnology company. The primary risk is the volatility and decline in demand for its COVID-19 vaccine portfolio (Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE), which has led to substantial revenue contraction and inventory write-downs. The company’s financial performance is increasingly sensitive to seasonal market dynamics, making accurate demand forecasting difficult and increasing the risk of excess inventory and unutilized manufacturing capacity. Moderna is heavily reliant on the successful development and commercialization of its pipeline, which includes the RSV vaccine mRESVIA, seasonal flu candidates, and oncology therapies like intismeran autogene. Delays in clinical trials, regulatory setbacks, or failure to achieve anticipated milestones could materially impact future cash flows. Furthermore, the company is involved in extensive patent litigation with competitors, including Pfizer, BioNTech, and Arbutus, which creates legal uncertainty and potential financial exposure. While Moderna has secured a $1.5 billion credit facility to bolster liquidity, it continues to burn significant cash to fund its R&D and global infrastructure. The company’s reliance on government contracts and international manufacturing partnerships also introduces geopolitical and foreign currency exchange risks that could adversely affect its operating results.

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MRNA filing events and research context

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