Match Group (MTCH) Research | Aerarium Research

Forward Estimates

EPS Estimates

Current Qtr

$0.95

$0.91$0.99

vs $0.71+34.2%

5 analysts

Next Qtr

$0.94

$0.83$0.99

vs $0.83+13.4%

5 analysts

Current Yr

$3.84

$3.60$4.02

vs $3.27+17.6%

5 analysts

Next Yr

$4.24

$3.79$4.56

vs $3.84+10.3%

5 analysts

Revenue Estimates

Current Qtr

$856.21M

$850.85M$862.00M

vs $863.74M-0.9%

18 analysts

Next Qtr

$890.32M

$874.50M$907.00M

vs $914.27M-2.6%

17 analysts

Current Yr

$3.47B

$3.44B$3.51B

vs $3.49B-0.4%

19 analysts

Next Yr

$3.60B

$3.46B$3.70B

vs $3.47B+3.8%

19 analysts

SEC filings →

View all 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for MTCH on EDGAR.

MTCH filing events and research context
Filed	Item	Context
Feb 26, 2026	business	Match Group operates a diversified portfolio of social connection apps categorized by "Fun" (Tinder), "Focus" (Hinge), and "Familiarity" (affinity brands like BLK). The company also manages "Evergreen" brands such as Match and Meetic, and MG Asia, which includes Pairs and Azar. Revenue is primarily generated through a freemium model consisting of recurring subscriptions and a-la-carte feature purchases, with a smaller contribution from advertising. Operationally, the "One MG" strategy centralizes administrative and technical functions to maximize profitability and scale. The company faces intense competition from other dating platforms and social media giants including Meta, Snap, and TikTok. Key growth drivers include AI integration, expansion into emerging markets, and adapting to the preferences of younger demographics. Significant operational risks include a heavy dependency on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store for distribution and payment processing, which entails substantial revenue-sharing fees. Notably, the removal of Azar from the Apple App Store in February 2026 presents a specific headwind for the MG Asia segment. Long-term success depends on maintaining brand differentiation, ensuring user safety through tools like Face Check, and navigating a shifting global regulatory environment for digital media.
Feb 26, 2026	mda	Match Group manages a global portfolio divided into Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen & Emerging (E&E), and Match Group Asia. Revenue is primarily driven by direct subscriptions and à la carte purchases. The company is realizing significant savings on in-app purchase fees due to a Google partnership, the EU Digital Markets Act, and increased alternative payment options. Strategic focus has shifted toward AI-driven matching and safety features, including the "Face Check" facial verification tool. Tinder continues to face user growth declines, with revenue expected to decrease in 2026 at a rate similar to 2025. Conversely, Hinge is expanding into India and South America to drive growth. Within the E&E segment, a pivot away from swipe-based interfaces for affinity brands like BLK and Chispa is expected to reduce revenue. A critical operational risk emerged in February 2026 when Apple removed the Azar app from the App Store, which is projected to negatively impact MG Asia’s 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. Financially, the company carries approximately $4.0 billion in total debt as of December 31, 2025, while continuing to execute share repurchase programs and pay quarterly dividends.
Feb 26, 2026	risk_factors	Match Group exhibits divergent performance across its core segments, with Hinge achieving 26% direct revenue growth driven by U.S. and European expansion, while Tinder faces a 7% decline in payers and a 4% drop in direct revenue. The Evergreen & Emerging and MG Asia segments continue to struggle with declining payer bases. A primary operational risk is the high cost of user acquisition, which typically yields negative returns in the immediate period. Financial results are further pressured by foreign currency volatility, as international markets account for 56% of total revenue, particularly involving the Euro, British Pound, Turkish Lira, and Argentine Peso. Recent legal liabilities include a $60.5 million settlement regarding Tinder’s age-tiered pricing and a $14 million FTC settlement for Evergreen & Emerging applications. A critical emerging risk is the February 2026 removal of the Azar app from the Apple App Store due to revised guidelines on anonymous chat. This event threatens a significant portion of MG Asia's revenue and may necessitate substantial impairment charges for Azar’s brand, customer lists, and associated goodwill.

Filed

Item

Context

Feb 26, 2026

business

Match Group operates a diversified portfolio of social connection apps categorized by "Fun" (Tinder), "Focus" (Hinge), and "Familiarity" (affinity brands like BLK). The company also manages "Evergreen" brands such as Match and Meetic, and MG Asia, which includes Pairs and Azar. Revenue is primarily generated through a freemium model consisting of recurring subscriptions and a-la-carte feature purchases, with a smaller contribution from advertising. Operationally, the "One MG" strategy centralizes administrative and technical functions to maximize profitability and scale. The company faces intense competition from other dating platforms and social media giants including Meta, Snap, and TikTok. Key growth drivers include AI integration, expansion into emerging markets, and adapting to the preferences of younger demographics. Significant operational risks include a heavy dependency on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store for distribution and payment processing, which entails substantial revenue-sharing fees. Notably, the removal of Azar from the Apple App Store in February 2026 presents a specific headwind for the MG Asia segment. Long-term success depends on maintaining brand differentiation, ensuring user safety through tools like Face Check, and navigating a shifting global regulatory environment for digital media.

Feb 26, 2026

mda

Match Group manages a global portfolio divided into Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen & Emerging (E&E), and Match Group Asia. Revenue is primarily driven by direct subscriptions and à la carte purchases. The company is realizing significant savings on in-app purchase fees due to a Google partnership, the EU Digital Markets Act, and increased alternative payment options. Strategic focus has shifted toward AI-driven matching and safety features, including the "Face Check" facial verification tool. Tinder continues to face user growth declines, with revenue expected to decrease in 2026 at a rate similar to 2025. Conversely, Hinge is expanding into India and South America to drive growth. Within the E&E segment, a pivot away from swipe-based interfaces for affinity brands like BLK and Chispa is expected to reduce revenue. A critical operational risk emerged in February 2026 when Apple removed the Azar app from the App Store, which is projected to negatively impact MG Asia’s 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. Financially, the company carries approximately $4.0 billion in total debt as of December 31, 2025, while continuing to execute share repurchase programs and pay quarterly dividends.

Feb 26, 2026

risk_factors

Match Group exhibits divergent performance across its core segments, with Hinge achieving 26% direct revenue growth driven by U.S. and European expansion, while Tinder faces a 7% decline in payers and a 4% drop in direct revenue. The Evergreen & Emerging and MG Asia segments continue to struggle with declining payer bases. A primary operational risk is the high cost of user acquisition, which typically yields negative returns in the immediate period. Financial results are further pressured by foreign currency volatility, as international markets account for 56% of total revenue, particularly involving the Euro, British Pound, Turkish Lira, and Argentine Peso. Recent legal liabilities include a $60.5 million settlement regarding Tinder’s age-tiered pricing and a $14 million FTC settlement for Evergreen & Emerging applications. A critical emerging risk is the February 2026 removal of the Azar app from the Apple App Store due to revised guidelines on anonymous chat. This event threatens a significant portion of MG Asia's revenue and may necessitate substantial impairment charges for Azar’s brand, customer lists, and associated goodwill.

Forward Estimates

MTCH filing events and research context

Keep researching MTCH

Related tickers

Related explainers

Forward Estimates