Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Research

Forward Estimates

EPS Estimates

Current Qtr

$2.35

$2.31$2.39

vs $2.48-5.1%

8 analysts

Next Qtr

$2.94

$2.65$3.25

vs $2.73+7.7%

8 analysts

Current Yr

$10.38

$10.00$10.99

vs $9.84+5.5%

9 analysts

Next Yr

$12.25

$11.55$13.00

vs $10.38+18.0%

9 analysts

Revenue Estimates

Current Qtr

$2.49B

$2.38B$2.61B

vs $2.17B+14.7%

8 analysts

Next Qtr

$2.61B

$2.53B$2.75B

vs $2.31B+12.7%

8 analysts

Current Yr

$10.01B

$9.71B$10.35B

vs $8.99B+11.3%

10 analysts

Next Yr

$10.50B

$10.08B$10.75B

vs $10.01B+4.9%

10 analysts

SEC filings →

View all 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for PKG on EDGAR.

PKG filing events and research context
Filed	Item	Context
Feb 26, 2026	business	Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) operates through Packaging and Paper segments, producing containerboard—specifically linerboard and corrugating medium—and communication papers, including cut-size office and printing grades. In September 2025, PCA expanded its capacity by acquiring Greif’s containerboard business for $1.8 billion, adding two mills and eight plants. Simultaneously, the company is restructuring its Wallula, Washington mill by permanently shutting down the No. 2 paper machine and kraft pulping facilities, incurring significant restructuring charges. For 2025, net sales rose 7.2% to $8.99 billion, though net income declined to $774.1 million, impacted by acquisition and restructuring costs. The Paper segment faces long-term structural decline due to electronic data transmission, while the Packaging segment navigates a contraction in North American corrugated shipments and containerboard production. PCA is managing cost pressures from inflation in energy, chemicals, and labor, partially offset by strategic price increases for linerboard and medium. Environmental risks include compliance with the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, with a corporate goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Looking toward 2026, the company expects improving demand in legacy corrugated plants and cost benefits from the Wallula reconfiguration.
Feb 26, 2026	mda	Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) operates in the containerboard, corrugated packaging, and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper markets. A primary strategic driver is the September 2025 acquisition of Greif, Inc.’s containerboard business, which will increase the company's reliance on recycled fiber. Financial results are highly sensitive to input cost volatility; specifically, a $10 per ton increase in recycled fiber would result in approximately $20 million of additional expense, while a $0.10 per million MMBTU increase in natural gas would add $3 million. The Paper segment faces significant customer concentration, with ODP Corporation representing 58% of segment sales under an agreement expiring December 31, 2026. Long-term demand for UFS paper is declining due to the shift toward electronic alternatives. PCA manages $4.0 billion in outstanding debt, including $1.0 billion at floating rates, leaving the company vulnerable to high interest rates and inflationary pressures on production and transportation. Operational stability depends on a highly unionized workforce and the availability of third-party rail and truck logistics. These factors, combined with uncertain 2026 economic conditions, create volatility for earnings and operating cash flows.
Feb 26, 2026	risk_factors	Packaging Corporation of America faces structural declines in its Paper segment, where uncoated freesheet paper shipments are falling due to the shift toward electronic data transmission and document storage. In the Packaging segment, the $1.8 billion acquisition of Greif’s containerboard business increases production capacity but introduces integration challenges and higher interest expenses. Operational risks include cost inflation for wood, energy, and chemicals, as well as disruptions from weather and scheduled maintenance outages at the Counce mill. The company is also executing a costly restructuring of its Wallula mill. Environmental risks are prominent, particularly regarding compliance with the Clean Air Act and upcoming EPA pollutant testing for Pulp MACT standards in 2026. Potential federal greenhouse gas legislation, including carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems, may further increase compliance costs. Financially, PCA is exposed to interest rate volatility on its variable-rate debt and significant sensitivity in its pension benefit obligations relative to discount rate changes. Furthermore, the substantial goodwill recognized from the Greif acquisition presents a potential impairment risk if projected synergies are not realized.

Filed

Item

Context

Feb 26, 2026

business

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) operates through Packaging and Paper segments, producing containerboard—specifically linerboard and corrugating medium—and communication papers, including cut-size office and printing grades. In September 2025, PCA expanded its capacity by acquiring Greif’s containerboard business for $1.8 billion, adding two mills and eight plants. Simultaneously, the company is restructuring its Wallula, Washington mill by permanently shutting down the No. 2 paper machine and kraft pulping facilities, incurring significant restructuring charges. For 2025, net sales rose 7.2% to $8.99 billion, though net income declined to $774.1 million, impacted by acquisition and restructuring costs. The Paper segment faces long-term structural decline due to electronic data transmission, while the Packaging segment navigates a contraction in North American corrugated shipments and containerboard production. PCA is managing cost pressures from inflation in energy, chemicals, and labor, partially offset by strategic price increases for linerboard and medium. Environmental risks include compliance with the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, with a corporate goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Looking toward 2026, the company expects improving demand in legacy corrugated plants and cost benefits from the Wallula reconfiguration.

Feb 26, 2026

mda

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) operates in the containerboard, corrugated packaging, and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper markets. A primary strategic driver is the September 2025 acquisition of Greif, Inc.’s containerboard business, which will increase the company's reliance on recycled fiber. Financial results are highly sensitive to input cost volatility; specifically, a $10 per ton increase in recycled fiber would result in approximately $20 million of additional expense, while a $0.10 per million MMBTU increase in natural gas would add $3 million. The Paper segment faces significant customer concentration, with ODP Corporation representing 58% of segment sales under an agreement expiring December 31, 2026. Long-term demand for UFS paper is declining due to the shift toward electronic alternatives. PCA manages $4.0 billion in outstanding debt, including $1.0 billion at floating rates, leaving the company vulnerable to high interest rates and inflationary pressures on production and transportation. Operational stability depends on a highly unionized workforce and the availability of third-party rail and truck logistics. These factors, combined with uncertain 2026 economic conditions, create volatility for earnings and operating cash flows.

Feb 26, 2026

risk_factors

Packaging Corporation of America faces structural declines in its Paper segment, where uncoated freesheet paper shipments are falling due to the shift toward electronic data transmission and document storage. In the Packaging segment, the $1.8 billion acquisition of Greif’s containerboard business increases production capacity but introduces integration challenges and higher interest expenses. Operational risks include cost inflation for wood, energy, and chemicals, as well as disruptions from weather and scheduled maintenance outages at the Counce mill. The company is also executing a costly restructuring of its Wallula mill. Environmental risks are prominent, particularly regarding compliance with the Clean Air Act and upcoming EPA pollutant testing for Pulp MACT standards in 2026. Potential federal greenhouse gas legislation, including carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems, may further increase compliance costs. Financially, PCA is exposed to interest rate volatility on its variable-rate debt and significant sensitivity in its pension benefit obligations relative to discount rate changes. Furthermore, the substantial goodwill recognized from the Greif acquisition presents a potential impairment risk if projected synergies are not realized.

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PKG filing events and research context

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