Vistra Corp. (VST) Research | Aerarium Research

Forward Estimates

EPS Estimates

Current Qtr

$2.05

$1.18$2.51

vs $0.81+152.5%

8 analysts

Next Qtr

$2.41

$-0.04$3.39

vs $1.75+37.8%

8 analysts

Current Yr

$9.70

$8.33$11.32

vs $2.18+344.7%

12 analysts

Next Yr

$11.05

$9.29$13.00

vs $9.70+13.9%

12 analysts

Revenue Estimates

Current Qtr

$5.77B

$4.87B$6.73B

vs $4.25B+35.9%

6 analysts

Next Qtr

$7.10B

$5.42B$8.48B

vs $4.97B+42.8%

6 analysts

Current Yr

$23.26B

$18.75B$28.02B

vs $17.74B+31.1%

13 analysts

Next Yr

$25.32B

$18.48B$30.95B

vs $23.26B+8.8%

13 analysts

SEC filings →

View all 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for VST on EDGAR.

VST filing events and research context
Filed	Item	Context
May 8, 2026	mda_quarterly	Vistra Corp. reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2026, with net income of $1.029 billion compared to a $268 million loss in the prior-year period. This improvement was driven largely by a $1.29 billion favorable swing in unrealized mark-to-market gains on commodity hedges and higher realized capacity and energy revenues. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.475 billion, supported by the integration of the Lotus Acquisition, which added 2,600 MW of natural gas capacity across PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, and CAISO. The company’s liquidity remains robust, bolstered by an investment-grade credit rating upgrade from S&P and Fitch in early 2026. This triggered a full release of collateral liens on senior secured notes and credit facilities. Vistra successfully issued $4.0 billion in senior unsecured notes in April 2026, using proceeds to retire higher-cost debt, including the $2.444 billion Term Loan B-3. Key strategic initiatives include the pending $2.3 billion acquisition of Cogentrix Energy (5,500 MW), expected to close in late 2026, and significant long-term power purchase agreements with Meta and AWS to supply carbon-free nuclear power. While the company faces ongoing supply chain constraints and regulatory scrutiny regarding environmental rules, it maintains a disciplined hedging strategy, with substantially all 2026 generation volumes hedged.
Nov 7, 2025	mda_quarterly	Vistra reported net income of $652 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, a decrease from $1.837 billion in the prior year. Strategic expansion includes the October 2025 acquisition of Lotus Infrastructure Partners for $1.9 billion, adding 2,600 MW of natural gas capacity across PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, and CAISO, and a 20-year power purchase agreement to supply 1,200 MW of carbon-free power from Comanche Peak. Financial results are supported by Inflation Reduction Act nuclear Production Tax Credits, which contributed $145 million per quarter in 2025. These developments are tempered by significant operational risks, specifically two major fires. The Moss Landing 300 battery facility incident led to a $400 million write-off and estimated $110 million in EPA remediation costs, while the Martin Lake Unit 1 fire requires approximately $355 million for restoration. Vistra is leveraging increased electricity demand from data centers and EV load growth while managing supply chain constraints and Russian uranium import restrictions. To fund acquisitions and refinance $1 billion in unsecured notes, Vistra issued $2 billion in senior secured notes in October 2025 and authorized an additional $1 billion for share repurchases.
Aug 8, 2025	mda_quarterly	Vistra Corp.’s financial performance in the first half of 2025 was shaped by significant operational disruptions, capacity market tailwinds, and strategic expansions. Operating revenues rose to $4,250 million in Q2 2025 from $3,845 million in Q2 2024, though Q2 net income fell to $327 million from $467 million due to higher plant outage costs. For the first half of 2025, Adjusted EBITDA reached $2,548 million, up from $2,021 million in H1 2024. Operationally, Vistra is navigating two major generation incidents. The January 2025 Moss Landing battery storage fire led to a $400 million write-off of the 300 MW facility and an estimated $110 million in remediation costs under an EPA consent order. Meanwhile, restoring the 815 MW Martin Lake Unit 1 coal facility after a November 2024 fire will require $280 million in capital expenditures, with a return to service expected in late 2025. On the growth front, Vistra entered a $1.9 billion agreement in May 2025 to acquire Lotus Infrastructure Partners' 2,600 MW natural gas fleet across PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, and CAISO. Additionally, Vistra plans to add up to 2,000 MW of dispatchable gas capacity in ERCOT. In July 2025, the Perry Nuclear Plant license was extended to 2046, and PJM capacity auction results cleared 10,314 MW at a strong $329.17 per MW-day for the 2026-2027 planning year.

Filed

Item

Context

May 8, 2026

mda_quarterly

Vistra Corp. reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2026, with net income of $1.029 billion compared to a $268 million loss in the prior-year period. This improvement was driven largely by a $1.29 billion favorable swing in unrealized mark-to-market gains on commodity hedges and higher realized capacity and energy revenues. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.475 billion, supported by the integration of the Lotus Acquisition, which added 2,600 MW of natural gas capacity across PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, and CAISO. The company’s liquidity remains robust, bolstered by an investment-grade credit rating upgrade from S&P and Fitch in early 2026. This triggered a full release of collateral liens on senior secured notes and credit facilities. Vistra successfully issued $4.0 billion in senior unsecured notes in April 2026, using proceeds to retire higher-cost debt, including the $2.444 billion Term Loan B-3. Key strategic initiatives include the pending $2.3 billion acquisition of Cogentrix Energy (5,500 MW), expected to close in late 2026, and significant long-term power purchase agreements with Meta and AWS to supply carbon-free nuclear power. While the company faces ongoing supply chain constraints and regulatory scrutiny regarding environmental rules, it maintains a disciplined hedging strategy, with substantially all 2026 generation volumes hedged.

Nov 7, 2025

mda_quarterly

Vistra reported net income of $652 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, a decrease from $1.837 billion in the prior year. Strategic expansion includes the October 2025 acquisition of Lotus Infrastructure Partners for $1.9 billion, adding 2,600 MW of natural gas capacity across PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, and CAISO, and a 20-year power purchase agreement to supply 1,200 MW of carbon-free power from Comanche Peak. Financial results are supported by Inflation Reduction Act nuclear Production Tax Credits, which contributed $145 million per quarter in 2025. These developments are tempered by significant operational risks, specifically two major fires. The Moss Landing 300 battery facility incident led to a $400 million write-off and estimated $110 million in EPA remediation costs, while the Martin Lake Unit 1 fire requires approximately $355 million for restoration. Vistra is leveraging increased electricity demand from data centers and EV load growth while managing supply chain constraints and Russian uranium import restrictions. To fund acquisitions and refinance $1 billion in unsecured notes, Vistra issued $2 billion in senior secured notes in October 2025 and authorized an additional $1 billion for share repurchases.

Aug 8, 2025

mda_quarterly

Vistra Corp.’s financial performance in the first half of 2025 was shaped by significant operational disruptions, capacity market tailwinds, and strategic expansions. Operating revenues rose to $4,250 million in Q2 2025 from $3,845 million in Q2 2024, though Q2 net income fell to $327 million from $467 million due to higher plant outage costs. For the first half of 2025, Adjusted EBITDA reached $2,548 million, up from $2,021 million in H1 2024. Operationally, Vistra is navigating two major generation incidents. The January 2025 Moss Landing battery storage fire led to a $400 million write-off of the 300 MW facility and an estimated $110 million in remediation costs under an EPA consent order. Meanwhile, restoring the 815 MW Martin Lake Unit 1 coal facility after a November 2024 fire will require $280 million in capital expenditures, with a return to service expected in late 2025. On the growth front, Vistra entered a $1.9 billion agreement in May 2025 to acquire Lotus Infrastructure Partners' 2,600 MW natural gas fleet across PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, and CAISO. Additionally, Vistra plans to add up to 2,000 MW of dispatchable gas capacity in ERCOT. In July 2025, the Perry Nuclear Plant license was extended to 2046, and PJM capacity auction results cleared 10,314 MW at a strong $329.17 per MW-day for the 2026-2027 planning year.

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